State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF — daily chart analysis

SPY’s daily chart shows a larger advance from roughly 630 in August 2025, interrupted by a sharp spring 2026 correction before price rallied into the 750s. Following a May–July consolidation, the July low at 729.10 gave way to a climb toward the October high at 781.62. Price then ranged broadly before breaking below the former shelf to 732.71 in November. The rebound to the snapshot price of 759.55 has recovered part of that decline, but remains below the 50-day average and the November rebound high. The breakdown came on unusually heavy volume, while subsequent rebound volume was generally lighter, leaving the repair of the old range unconfirmed.

The saved long thesis is a conditional watch, not an active trade. It requires a fresh pullback into 741–746 that holds above 732.50, followed by a completed daily close above 746; only a subsequent fill at 744–746 qualifies, with no chase if price does not return. A later recovery through 762.51 and the approximately 764.96 50-day average would strengthen the case for a move toward 775.64, the November rebound high. Sustained strength through that first objective would put the October shelf high at 781.62 in focus. Price trading at or below 732.50 invalidates the plan; a gap could result in worse execution. Failure to reclaim the intermediate resistance, particularly after the heavy-volume breakdown, would undermine the projected recovery.